JAKARTA, May 21 (Reuters) – Indonesia is expected to report on Monday that the economy grew about 4.4 percent in the year through the first quarter, supported by record low interest rates and relative political stability, a Reuters survey showed.

But five economists surveyed on Friday said growth was narrowly focused, with private consumption the major contributor while investment and exports were still lacklustre.

The government is due to release gross domestic product data for the first quarter on Monday at 0630 GMT.

The survey shows that economic growth hardly picked up since the fourth quarter, which had expanded 4.35 percent from the year earlier.

The growth rate would also be too low to create enough jobs to counter unemployment, which is likely to be a key issue along with the economy in the country’s first direct presidential election on July 5.

However, economists said the shallow growth was likely to prompt the central bank to keep domestic interest rates at historic lows, despite a weaker rupiah, to try to boost economic activity.

That could be a relief to bankers, car dealers and property developers, whose first-quarter financial performances have been among the strongest in recent years because of low rates.

“Several indicators of the real sector’s performance have shown better numbers in the first quarter, such as sales of motorcycles, cars, and cement and electricity consumption,” Citibank economist Anton Gunawan said.

Economists said relative political stability during the quarter had boosted consumer confidence.

The deadly bombings and violent street protests that have hit Indonesia in recent years were largely absent in the quarter and campaigning for April 5 parliamentary elections was peaceful.

The Jakarta stock index reached a historic high of 824.5 points last month due in part to expectations the low rates, currently at 7.32 percent for benchmark central bank paper, would boost corporate profits.

CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

But over the long term, the private consumption that accounts for 70 percent of GDP will not be enough for Indonesia to maintain current growth rates, let alone raise them to at least the six percent needed to deal with the country’s unemployment woes.

GDP growth of 4.1 percent last year created new jobs for just 1.6 million people, compared with 5.2 million who entered the labour market in which 40 million were already either unemployed or underemployed, a finance ministry document showed.

Investment has also been far from encouraging, economists said.

Imports of capital goods dropped 6.2 percent in the year through the first quarter. Foreign investment approvals remained weak during the quarter.

Judging from the expected modest first-quarter performance, Indonesia is likely to post full-year growth of 4.5 percent, an earlier survey showed.

The government has forecast growth of 4.8 percent this year.