Indonesian Govt Optimistic That Economy May Grow Up to 5.9% in 2013
The Indonesian government hopes the nation’s consumers can spend their way out of the worst of the economic slowdown currently affecting emerging markets, the president’s office said on Monday.
The government has advocated a “keep buying policy,” that, tied with poverty reduction programs and monetary tightening, are aimed at curbing the effects of the nation’s slowing economy. Annual growth estimates for 2013 have dipped below 6 percent as news that the United States Federal Reserve would curb quantitative easing measures broke.
The government is now optimistic that the nation will book at least 5.7 percent growth by the end of 2013, Firmanzah, the presidents special staffer on economic and development affairs announced on Monday.
“We are optimistic that by the end of 2013, the country’s positive economic growth could reach between 5.7-5.9 percent,” Firmanzah said.
The World Bank predicted the nation’s economy would expand 5.6 percent this year and 5.3 percent next year. Government predictions are usually more optimistic.
The Fed held off on cutting the stimulus, for now, but the end of US-backed “hot money,” is still around the corner, US officials warned. The turbulence created by the mere mention of an end to QE sent the rupiah plummeting and put a damper on investor attitudes on Indonesia — once a darling of international investors. Global financial institutions are now warning the Fed to take care when rolling back easing measures.
Indonesia, one of the worst hit of the emerging economies, has embarked on a series of stringent monetary tightening measures to safeguard the domestic economy. The central bank slashed growth predictions and raised the benchmark interest rate 150 basis points between June and September. It held the rate this month.
Firmanzah called 0.35 percent deflation and a $132.4 trade surplus as a good signal for Indonesia, but added that further steps needed to be taken to help insulate Indonesia from the global developing world slowdown.
“Quick policy responses and cross-sectoral policy coordination are key factors to [curbing these] risks,” he said.
But economists were quick to point out that the trade surplus came with a caveat. The current account was helped by a decrease in imports, mainly fuel following subsidy cuts, not an increase in exports. Consumer confidence has hit the lowest point in more than a year on concern over the falling value of the rupiah and inflation, the central bank announced on Oct. 10.
The government remained optimistic. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono told a panel at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit that now was the time to invest in Indonesia, calling the slowdown a short-term challenge.
